Pipeline hack uncovers another issue; not enough gas transport drivers
The Colonial gas pipeline hack resulted in gas supply issues in much of the East. But there’s “another” gas supply concern: A shortage of drivers who “transport” gasoline. We learned more from Hitendra Chaturvedi, a Supply Chain Professor at Arizona State University’s W.P. Carey School of Business.
“What happened was that many of these food truck drivers, ended up leaving the job for a much higher paid job in the construction industry. Many people don’t realize is that even in a normal, average year, the turnover of truck drivers for the few trucking industries have a 15%, because you’d stay away from home a lot, a lot of stress during the pandemic increased in 17%. So that was one reason.
Second, during the pandemic, most of the schools…huge truck driving is highly specialized schools that teach drivers….Many of these schools are shut down. So the pipeline dried out, there weren’t many truck drivers out there who were qualified to go drive the truck when demand started increasing,” Chaturvedi said.
How has this/will this affect gas prices in Arizona?
“It has already affected gas prices in Arizona, because we get gas from two locations, west, which is California and Texas in the east. Few of the f gas prices increase happen because of the winter storm. But again, pandemic in California and Texas, the shortage of drivers, both the locations, we are we are facing the same thing.
It is going to improve. It is already improving. And so, wait till August…July/August, after that you will start to see prices going down, as well as the shortage is going away,” Chaturvedi said.
Chaturvedi recognizes the issue at hand but has hope for the future, “this problem is staring us in the eye, it is still for other products because there are so many companies and so many drivers, and so many trucks that other products and commodities can hedge the risk for a few truck drivers because they’re so specialized, this is becoming more acute, but I don’t foresee this to last for another couple months.”
The Colonial gas pipeline hack resulted in gas supply issues in much of the East. But there’s “another” gas supply concern: A shortage of drivers who “transport” gasoline. We learned more from Hitendra Chaturvedi, a Supply Chain Professor at Arizona State University’s W.P. Carey School of Business.
“What happened was that many of these food truck drivers, ended up leaving the job for a much higher paid job in the construction industry. Many people don’t realize is that even in a normal, average year, the turnover of truck drivers for the few trucking industries have a 15%, because you’d stay away from home a lot, a lot of stress during the pandemic increased in 17%. So that was one reason.
Second, during the pandemic, most of the schools…huge truck driving is highly specialized schools that teach drivers….Many of these schools are shut down. So the pipeline dried out, there weren’t many truck drivers out there who were qualified to go drive the truck when demand started increasing,” Chaturvedi said.
How has this/will this affect gas prices in Arizona?
“It has already affected gas prices in Arizona, because we get gas from two locations, west, which is California and Texas in the east. Few of the f gas prices increase happen because of the winter storm. But again, pandemic in California and Texas, the shortage of drivers, both the locations, we are we are facing the same thing.
It is going to improve. It is already improving. And so, wait till August…July/August, after that you will start to see prices going down, as well as the shortage is going away,” Chaturvedi said.
Chaturvedi recognizes the issue at hand but has hope for the future, “this problem is staring us in the eye, it is still for other products because there are so many companies and so many drivers, and so many trucks that other products and commodities can hedge the risk for a few truck drivers because they’re so specialized, this is becoming more acute, but I don’t foresee this to last for another couple months.”
Report: Schools Can’t Fill Teacher Vacancies
An average 20% boost in teacher salaries in the past four years has apparently done little to entice people into the classroom. and keep experienced staffers there.
A new report Thursday by the Arizona School Personnel Administrators Association finds that schools surveyed were able to fill just 28% of the vacancies they had due to retirement and other reasons that teachers leave their jobs.
That’s not to say there weren’t adults standing in front of classrooms. But districts had to make up the difference, largely with having their current teachers work extra hours or using long-term substitutes.
Justin Wing, the organization’s immediate past president, acknowledged that filling vacancies has been a perennial problem in Arizona schools. But Wing said there’s something different in this year’s report: the number of experienced teachers who resigned as the school year began.
In “normal” years, Wing said there always are new teachers who quickly conclude that the job isn’t what they expected and decide to pursue another career. This year, he said, the problem appears to be directly related to COVID-19.
The 145 school districts and charter schools that responded to the survey reported 751 teachers leaving at the beginning of the year. Of that, 326 of those resignations were teachers who said they were quitting outright or retiring while citing the coronavirus as the prime reasons. And another 342 said they were taking a year off, without pay, due to COVID-19.
The districts also reported 633 other non-teaching staff who resigned or retired citing the virus as the primary reason. COVID-19 aside, Wing said the “why” behind the staffing problems remain unclear. Salaries, he said, remain an issue. “Even though pay has gone up, we were in a big hole,” he said.
An average 20% boost in teacher salaries in the past four years has apparently done little to entice people into the classroom. and keep experienced staffers there.
A new report Thursday by the Arizona School Personnel Administrators Association finds that schools surveyed were able to fill just 28% of the vacancies they had due to retirement and other reasons that teachers leave their jobs.
That’s not to say there weren’t adults standing in front of classrooms. But districts had to make up the difference, largely with having their current teachers work extra hours or using long-term substitutes.
Justin Wing, the organization’s immediate past president, acknowledged that filling vacancies has been a perennial problem in Arizona schools. But Wing said there’s something different in this year’s report: the number of experienced teachers who resigned as the school year began.
In “normal” years, Wing said there always are new teachers who quickly conclude that the job isn’t what they expected and decide to pursue another career. This year, he said, the problem appears to be directly related to COVID-19.
The 145 school districts and charter schools that responded to the survey reported 751 teachers leaving at the beginning of the year. Of that, 326 of those resignations were teachers who said they were quitting outright or retiring while citing the coronavirus as the prime reasons. And another 342 said they were taking a year off, without pay, due to COVID-19.
The districts also reported 633 other non-teaching staff who resigned or retired citing the virus as the primary reason. COVID-19 aside, Wing said the “why” behind the staffing problems remain unclear. Salaries, he said, remain an issue. “Even though pay has gone up, we were in a big hole,” he said.
Data Centers Remain A Hot Market for Phoenix Metro Area
Demand for Data Centers remain high for our state. Not long-ago Microsoft announced the building a 254,000 SF world-class, sustainable data center campus in El Mirage. The entire Phoenix metro area continues to be hot for data centers!
Driven by demand from cloud services companies, the Phoenix area saw the eighth-most data center leasing activity in North America! Phoenix remains remains the fifth-largest data center market in the country, according to CBRE’s latest North American Data Center Trends Report.
“Metro Phoenix has a very healthy data center market, with growth expected over the next 48 to 60 months,” said Mark Krison, senior vice president with CBRE in Phoenix. “Major colocation providers will continue to build in the metro because of availability of land, fiber connectivity and clean power. Phoenix’s robust supply pipeline should drive demand from large hyperscale users.”
National Trends
The North American data center sector was resilient in the first half of 2020 as many businesses implemented hybrid IT infrastructure to improve their remote work capabilities and streaming content providers saw increased viewership due to the COVID-19 pandemic.
“The economic slowdown will force companies to scrutinize every dollar of their IT spending, but continued investment in mission-critical IT infrastructure like data centers and cloud services will be imperative to supporting business continuity and remote working,” said Pat Lynch, Senior Managing Director, Data Center Solutions, CBRE.
Demand for Data Centers remain high for our state. Not long-ago Microsoft announced the building a 254,000 SF world-class, sustainable data center campus in El Mirage. The entire Phoenix metro area continues to be hot for data centers!
Driven by demand from cloud services companies, the Phoenix area saw the eighth-most data center leasing activity in North America! Phoenix remains remains the fifth-largest data center market in the country, according to CBRE’s latest North American Data Center Trends Report.
“Metro Phoenix has a very healthy data center market, with growth expected over the next 48 to 60 months,” said Mark Krison, senior vice president with CBRE in Phoenix. “Major colocation providers will continue to build in the metro because of availability of land, fiber connectivity and clean power. Phoenix’s robust supply pipeline should drive demand from large hyperscale users.”
National Trends
The North American data center sector was resilient in the first half of 2020 as many businesses implemented hybrid IT infrastructure to improve their remote work capabilities and streaming content providers saw increased viewership due to the COVID-19 pandemic.
“The economic slowdown will force companies to scrutinize every dollar of their IT spending, but continued investment in mission-critical IT infrastructure like data centers and cloud services will be imperative to supporting business continuity and remote working,” said Pat Lynch, Senior Managing Director, Data Center Solutions, CBRE.
Economist: Arizona economy could return to pre-pandemic levels by mid-2021, but potential tax increase would dim forecast. If virus conditions stabilize, Hammond expects the state will return to pre-pandemic levels of activity by mid-2021.
(The Center Square) – Arizona's economy, like all states', has struggled during the pandemic, but the state as a whole should rebound more quickly than many others, business and economy experts say.
"Arizona’s pre-pandemic economy was one of the hottest in the country," Garrick Taylor, executive vice president of Arizona Chamber of Commerce and Industry, told The Center Square. "That led to revenues that allowed the state rainy day fund to be filled to the brim and positioned the state to better weather a downturn."
George Hammond, economic forecaster and director of the Economic and Business Research Center of the Eller College of Management at University of Arizona, told The Center Square that Arizona was not hit quite as hard as the rest of the United States at the beginning of the pandemic.
"Arizona jobs declined by 9.9 percent while nationally jobs declined by 14.5 percent," Hammond said. "As of July, Arizona jobs are 5.2 percent below their February peak while nationally jobs are 8.4 percent below February."
Federal programs also helped sustain Arizonans' personal finances, helping families and businesses stay afloat. Workers who lost their jobs during the pandemic received a combined $8.2 billion in supplemental benefits through the CARES Act. And the Paycheck Protection Program kept tens of thousands of workers in their jobs.
The future of the state's economy is very dependent on containment of the virus and Arizonans' willingness to wear masks, socially distance and sanitize.
"The outlook depends crucially on the pandemic," Hammond said. "If the recent surge is contained and there is no major resurgence in the fall/winter, then the state should continue a steady recovery."
If virus conditions stabilize, Hammond expects the state will return to pre-pandemic levels of activity by mid-2021.
But Taylor also said there are "storm clouds" on the fall ballot that could have a tremendous effect on the economy.
The state's economic development prospects begin to look dim if Arizona voters approve a 77.7 percent income tax increase on the state's highest earners and small business proposed by the teacher's union. If voters approve the tax hike, it would push Arizona into the top-10 list of high tax states and damage the state's reputation for business friendliness, Taylor said.
"A full rainy day fund, a prudent and smart CARES Act fund allocation strategy, a tax and regulatory environment that encourages job creation, are all difference-makers," Taylor said. "But if Arizona increases its top tax rate by nearly 80 percent, the state would unfortunately be on the path to join those states that are struggling, especially during this pandemic. Arizona is doing comparatively well, but nothing’s guaranteed with this virus, so it’s not worth gambling."
(The Center Square) – Arizona's economy, like all states', has struggled during the pandemic, but the state as a whole should rebound more quickly than many others, business and economy experts say.
"Arizona’s pre-pandemic economy was one of the hottest in the country," Garrick Taylor, executive vice president of Arizona Chamber of Commerce and Industry, told The Center Square. "That led to revenues that allowed the state rainy day fund to be filled to the brim and positioned the state to better weather a downturn."
George Hammond, economic forecaster and director of the Economic and Business Research Center of the Eller College of Management at University of Arizona, told The Center Square that Arizona was not hit quite as hard as the rest of the United States at the beginning of the pandemic.
"Arizona jobs declined by 9.9 percent while nationally jobs declined by 14.5 percent," Hammond said. "As of July, Arizona jobs are 5.2 percent below their February peak while nationally jobs are 8.4 percent below February."
Federal programs also helped sustain Arizonans' personal finances, helping families and businesses stay afloat. Workers who lost their jobs during the pandemic received a combined $8.2 billion in supplemental benefits through the CARES Act. And the Paycheck Protection Program kept tens of thousands of workers in their jobs.
The future of the state's economy is very dependent on containment of the virus and Arizonans' willingness to wear masks, socially distance and sanitize.
"The outlook depends crucially on the pandemic," Hammond said. "If the recent surge is contained and there is no major resurgence in the fall/winter, then the state should continue a steady recovery."
If virus conditions stabilize, Hammond expects the state will return to pre-pandemic levels of activity by mid-2021.
But Taylor also said there are "storm clouds" on the fall ballot that could have a tremendous effect on the economy.
The state's economic development prospects begin to look dim if Arizona voters approve a 77.7 percent income tax increase on the state's highest earners and small business proposed by the teacher's union. If voters approve the tax hike, it would push Arizona into the top-10 list of high tax states and damage the state's reputation for business friendliness, Taylor said.
"A full rainy day fund, a prudent and smart CARES Act fund allocation strategy, a tax and regulatory environment that encourages job creation, are all difference-makers," Taylor said. "But if Arizona increases its top tax rate by nearly 80 percent, the state would unfortunately be on the path to join those states that are struggling, especially during this pandemic. Arizona is doing comparatively well, but nothing’s guaranteed with this virus, so it’s not worth gambling."
More than a quarter of major Valley roads in poor condition, report says
Just over 26% of the major roads in the area are in poor condition, according to a report analyzing federal highway statistics.
The analysis from automotive data company CoPilot ranked the Valley 25th for the worst roads out of 41 of the nation’s largest urban areas.
In the Valley, the worst problems were on arterial roads, with 29% of the arterial roads and 30% of the minor arterials in poor condition.
In contrast, only 0.8% of the Phoenix area interstates and freeways were in poor condition, according to the report. The data comes from the Federal Highway Administration’s Highway Statistics 2018 Series, which includes information on road quality using the International Roughness Index, rating roads as either good, fair or poor.
Just over 26% of the major roads in the area are in poor condition, according to a report analyzing federal highway statistics.
The analysis from automotive data company CoPilot ranked the Valley 25th for the worst roads out of 41 of the nation’s largest urban areas.
In the Valley, the worst problems were on arterial roads, with 29% of the arterial roads and 30% of the minor arterials in poor condition.
In contrast, only 0.8% of the Phoenix area interstates and freeways were in poor condition, according to the report. The data comes from the Federal Highway Administration’s Highway Statistics 2018 Series, which includes information on road quality using the International Roughness Index, rating roads as either good, fair or poor.
PPP Loans helped nearly 1,500 local businesses
A new Surprise Regional Chamber of Commerce report showed almost 1,500 small businesses in the Northwest Valley have received $155 million in PPP loan assistance.
Based the Chamber’s latest data, the PPP loans helped to retain 6,879 workers in the region (El Mirage, Sun City, Sun City West, Surprise, Waddell and Youngtown.) However, several small businesses in Surprise and surrounding areas are still suffering from the COVID-19 slowdown and waiting for Congress to act on additional bailout money.
“When the previous bailout programs were rolled out there was much confusion and turbulence, and small businesses did not initially fair well,” Chamber President and CEO Raoul Sada said. “The Chamber wants to do its part, making sure that does not happen again, and we are lobbying Capitol Hill for a packages that favor small businesses.”
Key Points:
•The SBA has just released a massive trove of data on PPP loans. This was a significant step forward in transparency by the government, prior to this the SBA resisted requests to share the recipients of the funds. This is why it is so important for the Chamber to hold government officials accountable, and for us to demand transparency at all levels of government (local, state and federal!)
•More than 81,000 Arizona businesses and nonprofits have received forgivable loans through the federal government's Paycheck Protection Program totaling $8.6 billion, according to the U.S. Small Business Administration.
•The Paycheck Protection Program, which was designed to avert mass layoffs during the Covid-19 pandemic.
•PPP loans are not made by SBA. PPP loans are made by lending institutions and then guaranteed by SBA.
•According to the data, 58 businesses in Arizona received between $5 and $10 million, the maximum amount allowed under the program. But the vast majority of loans, approximately 86%, are valued under $150,000.
•Close to 1500 small businesses received PPP loans in the six cities that make up the Chambers service territory. The amount of cash infused into our local economy was over $154 million dollars! Based on application data, the loans help to retain 6,879 workers in our region.
•Approximately 42 businesses were non-profits (2.8% of the recipients)
Based the Chamber’s latest data, the PPP loans helped to retain 6,879 workers in the region (El Mirage, Sun City, Sun City West, Surprise, Waddell and Youngtown.) However, several small businesses in Surprise and surrounding areas are still suffering from the COVID-19 slowdown and waiting for Congress to act on additional bailout money.
“When the previous bailout programs were rolled out there was much confusion and turbulence, and small businesses did not initially fair well,” Chamber President and CEO Raoul Sada said. “The Chamber wants to do its part, making sure that does not happen again, and we are lobbying Capitol Hill for a packages that favor small businesses.”
Key Points:
•The SBA has just released a massive trove of data on PPP loans. This was a significant step forward in transparency by the government, prior to this the SBA resisted requests to share the recipients of the funds. This is why it is so important for the Chamber to hold government officials accountable, and for us to demand transparency at all levels of government (local, state and federal!)
•More than 81,000 Arizona businesses and nonprofits have received forgivable loans through the federal government's Paycheck Protection Program totaling $8.6 billion, according to the U.S. Small Business Administration.
•The Paycheck Protection Program, which was designed to avert mass layoffs during the Covid-19 pandemic.
•PPP loans are not made by SBA. PPP loans are made by lending institutions and then guaranteed by SBA.
•According to the data, 58 businesses in Arizona received between $5 and $10 million, the maximum amount allowed under the program. But the vast majority of loans, approximately 86%, are valued under $150,000.
•Close to 1500 small businesses received PPP loans in the six cities that make up the Chambers service territory. The amount of cash infused into our local economy was over $154 million dollars! Based on application data, the loans help to retain 6,879 workers in our region.
•Approximately 42 businesses were non-profits (2.8% of the recipients)
Surprise Independent News Coverage
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See What Businesses are Open and Their COVID-19 Safeguards Based on a self -reported survey, as on 05/11/2020. Information is subject to change without notice. The collection and dissemination of the data was a combined effort between the City of Surprise and the Surprise Regional Chamber of Commerce. ShopSurprise Receive Special Deals, Promotions and Community Messages from Local Merchants, and your Chamber of Commerce. All messages are sent Directly to Your Phone! Get advance notice of new restaurants, grand openings, community events and more. It's FREE! Enroll Now |
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Chamber’s NW Valley COVID-19 Consumer Survey Results Are In
Survey Results Make the Paper-Click Here to Read the Article Consumers, not the government, will ultimately decide when the economy will open—that is why it is important for citizens and businesses to know what people are thinking. Please share your comments on our Facebook page! Government leaders and public health officials will make decisions, and issue guidance on when we return to work, but truly regaining some semblance of normalcy will be determined by how people feel and what motivates them to act or not act. The Chambers recent survey sheds more light about what consumers are thinking in the NW Valley . Share your comments on our Facebook page Take Our 1-Minute Survey |
Business COVID-19 Survey Results
Survey Makes Front Page of Surprise Independent- Read the Story
CEOs across the globe are coming to terms with the reality that business will be anything but normal over the coming months as the impact of the coronavirus pandemic continues to escalate.
But while revenues are set to suffer a short-term hit, the majority of leaders remain confident that their companies will be back on solid footing within the year, according to a new study on the business impact of the outbreak of COVID-19.
The survey results found that 82% of business leaders expect declines in revenues over the next six months, but more than half (54%) anticipate revenues will be back to normal in a year’s time. And 61% of CEOs expect their total fixed investments to remain unchanged year on year.
How Business Owners are Responding
Among the industries seeing the greatest impact from the fallout are hospitality and travel (89%), education (87%) and media and entertainment (80%). Meanwhile, production firms in agriculture, factories, mines and utilities reported some uptick in revenues.
Nevertheless, business leaders across the board (95%) said they’re taking new measures curb the impact of the virus. That includes communicating more regularly with employees (68%), adopting new health and safety procedures (67%), cancelling major events (64%) and halting business travel (53%).
Meanwhile, other respondents, when asked for their advice for business leaders, recommended the following:
Citation: The Survey was conducted by YPO a global leadership community of more than 29,000 chief executives in 130 countries. Full Press Release
Survey Makes Front Page of Surprise Independent- Read the Story
CEOs across the globe are coming to terms with the reality that business will be anything but normal over the coming months as the impact of the coronavirus pandemic continues to escalate.
But while revenues are set to suffer a short-term hit, the majority of leaders remain confident that their companies will be back on solid footing within the year, according to a new study on the business impact of the outbreak of COVID-19.
The survey results found that 82% of business leaders expect declines in revenues over the next six months, but more than half (54%) anticipate revenues will be back to normal in a year’s time. And 61% of CEOs expect their total fixed investments to remain unchanged year on year.
How Business Owners are Responding
Among the industries seeing the greatest impact from the fallout are hospitality and travel (89%), education (87%) and media and entertainment (80%). Meanwhile, production firms in agriculture, factories, mines and utilities reported some uptick in revenues.
Nevertheless, business leaders across the board (95%) said they’re taking new measures curb the impact of the virus. That includes communicating more regularly with employees (68%), adopting new health and safety procedures (67%), cancelling major events (64%) and halting business travel (53%).
Meanwhile, other respondents, when asked for their advice for business leaders, recommended the following:
- Focus on the facts
- Communicate regularly with employees and stakeholders/customers
- Stabilize supply chains
- Make short-term and long-term plans
Citation: The Survey was conducted by YPO a global leadership community of more than 29,000 chief executives in 130 countries. Full Press Release
USMCA AGREEMENT IS A WIN FOR THE NORTH WEST VALLEY
By any measure, the push to get the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) passed — which preserves and strengthens our economic ties with our neighbors and top two export markets — was a three-year-long process. And it did not happen by accident.
The U.S. Chamber, the Surprise Regional Chamber as well thousands of chambers from around the country put the full weight of our alliances behind this historic effort. A special thank you to all local businesses in our region who contacted their elected officials and encouraged them to support the agreement. The new U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement is expected to usher tangible benefits for the NW Valley including agriculture, technology, manufacturing, and other business sectors, industry analysts say.
Here’s a brief overview of what’s in it:
- Country of origin rules: Automobiles must have 75 percent of their components manufactured in Mexico, the US, or Canada to qualify for zero tariffs (up from 62.5 percent under NAFTA).
- Labor provisions: 40 to 45 percent of automobile parts must be made by workers who earn at least $16 an hour by 2023. Mexico agreed to pass new labor laws to give greater protection to workers, including migrants and women. Most notably, these laws are supposed to make it easier for Mexican workers to unionize.
- US farmers get more access to the Canadian dairy market: The US got Canada to open up its dairy market to US farmers, a big issue for Trump.
- Intellectual property and digital trade: The deal extends the terms of copyright to 70 years beyond the life of the author (up from 50). It also includes new provisions to deal with the digital economy, such as prohibiting duties on things like music and ebooks, and protections for internet companies, so they’re not liable for content their users produce.
- Sunset clause: The agreement adds a 16-year sunset clause — meaning the terms of the agreement expire, or “sunset,” after 16 years. The deal is also subject to review every six years, at which point the US, Mexico, and Canada can decide to extend the USMCA.
First-Ever Scorecard Released
Who Made the List? Our first-ever scorecard evaluates the votes of each state senator and representative and represents the positions of the West Valley Chamber Alliance that were communicated to our state lawmakers throughout the 2019 Regular Session. The scorecard helps the business community know where their elected officials stand on issues that affect us all. Click Here for Full Report
The Surprise Regional Chamber of Commerce (Districts 13, 21 and 22) would like to recognize Rick Gray, Frank Carroll, Tim Dunn and Joanne Osborne for having 100% scores in support of pro-business policies.
As a Chamber, we commend those elected leaders with scores above 80% and recognize them as Free Enterprise Champions for recognizing the vital role businesses play and supporting those businesses through common sense, pro-business, and growth-oriented public policy. All elected officials in Districts 13, 21 and 22 earned the Free Enterprise Champion designation which included Rick Gray, Ben Toma, Frank Carroll, Kevin Payne, Tony Rivera, David Livingston, Tim Dunn, Joanne Osborne and Sine Kerr.
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TAKE THE SURVEY NOW
2020 Business Climate Census Survey
Many in our business community are experiencing both challenges and successes as our economy grows. As we work to secure the NW Valley's future, it is crucial that the Surprise Regional Chamber of Commerce understand what issues are most important to businesses. The purpose of the Business Climate Survey is to track trends and issues affecting businesses and to inform elected officials about the issues and concerns of the local business community.
Click Here Now, To Take Our Annual Business Climate Survey
2020 Business Climate Census Survey
Many in our business community are experiencing both challenges and successes as our economy grows. As we work to secure the NW Valley's future, it is crucial that the Surprise Regional Chamber of Commerce understand what issues are most important to businesses. The purpose of the Business Climate Survey is to track trends and issues affecting businesses and to inform elected officials about the issues and concerns of the local business community.
Click Here Now, To Take Our Annual Business Climate Survey
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